Apples and Oranges: Two Different Fruits, but Fruits just the Same

You predict that ‘A’s the winner and ‘B and C’ are tied for second, he predicts that ‘B’s the winner and ‘C’ takes second, leaving ‘A’ to come in third. Moral: They are both just professional forecast, over analyzed hypothesizes, they are both just guesses trying to determine whose going to win. Two different polls; two different predictions; same three top contenders.   

Two polls released Friday, November 11, help to show how no one really knows how this GOP nomination is going to go. The polls differ in whose in the lead, but share the same top three candidates to look out for.

Comparing the Polls 

• Poll One:

According to CNN’s Political Ticker the CBS poll was conducted by telephone from November 6-10 among 1,029 registered voters and 382 who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. The overall sampling error for the poll is plus or minus three percentage points. The sampling error of Republican primary voters is plus or minus five percentage points.

• The Results:

11 Alive reports, "The field of Republican candidates now has three candidates within striking distance of each other at the top of the list: with 18 percent, Herman Cain is in the top spot, followed by Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich with 15 percent each." The three-point margin between the top three candidates is with the sampling error for the poll, indicating that Cain, Gingrich, and Romney are statistically tied.

• Poll Two:

CNN’s Political Ticker also releases information about the McClatchy-Marist Poll. Which was conducted by telephone among 1,072 adults including 827 registered voters and 347 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents combined? It has an overall sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

•  The Results:

Click on Detroit reports that nearly one-quarter of those surveyed in the McClatchy-Marist Poll say they would back Romney while Gingrich has leapfrogged Cain for second with 19% support. The conservative former radio talk show host is close behind with 17% saying they'd vote for him if the 2012 Republican primary or caucus were held in their state today. But 17% of those polled say they remain undecided about the race for the GOP presidential nomination. The slim margin separating those four choices falls within the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points, indicating the top three candidates are tied.

Fun Facts:

• 61% of likely GOP primary voters say Cain’s accusations of sexual harassment won't make any difference in their vote, three in 10 say the allegations make them less likely to support his candidacy for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination, a number that increases by seven when it comes to women.

• Cain has always performed better among women than men, but in late October a CBS poll indicated 28% of women backed Cain, a number that has dropped 13 percentage points in the new survey.

• 30%  of voters said they strongly support their candidate, a number unchanged since September, almost four in 10 said they were "somewhat" supportive and 31% said they could still change their mind.

• Loyalty varies among the top three: Roughly four in 10 Gingrich supporters were firmly committed to their choice, 31% of Cain backers said the same while 30% of Romney supporters said they're firmly committed as well.

Ultimately, what all this means is that Bachmann is going to sneak in at the last quarter and win the race. No, just kidding, what it means is that it’s a tossup. Right now all the tally’s fall within the margin of error offering nothing but false positives. Guess, we just like Obama, we too will have to wait and see who makes it to the champion round to go against him for the oval office.